Predicting the Great Recovery

News | 06-01-2021

Now, at the beginning of 2021, the pandemic hasn’t lost a bit of its unpredictable behavior. New mutants and accelerated vaccine programs are battling each other. The hardening and filtering of business leaders in navigating companies through this ever-changing profile of the Pandemic will now help to steer them into the recovery period. A new period that will landmark many company’s future and shape them for decades. What are the parameters of relevance to lead and steer on in the next phase of the Pandemic?

The Modelling and Prediction of the quantitative shape of each industrial recovery curve are likely to become accurate. Demand and Supply Planning as well as Capital Expenditures are simulated and laid down into several scenarios, ready to execute (MRD interviews among wide range of clients interviewed).

The key differentiator between companies will however not be on who is defining the most correct recovery curve but rather who will be capable to define when the recovery will get into effect.

The latest insights of the vaccination programs according to analysis of (Struyven/Bhushan – Goldman Sachs) indicate a predicted immunity exceeding 50% by May this year. Assuming a current 10% immunity, the needed threshold 60% group immunity among global populations could be reached between May and June 2021.

Corona business planning based on vaccinations

More importantly is the estimation of decision takers and leaders reaching their point of confidence that the estimated time of recovery is solid. Since this will activate the execution of the calculated scenario planning.

The projected vaccination curves will become accurate in the period of February and March 2021 and with that the related industrial market outlook. Leaving us actually with ample time to get started with preparing of the great recovery.

The MarketRedesign Team wishes all clients and partners a Healthy, Happy and Successful New Year.

Ruud Schmeink

CEO MarketRedesign